Difference between revisions of "Ilisu Dam Project, Turkey"
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{{Case Study | {{Case Study | ||
| − | |||
|Population=.078 | |Population=.078 | ||
|Area=57,614 | |Area=57,614 | ||
| − | |Climate=Semi-arid/steppe (Köppen B-type) | + | |Climate=Semi-arid/steppe (Köppen B-type) |
|Land Use=agricultural- cropland and pasture, conservation lands, urban, religious/cultural sites | |Land Use=agricultural- cropland and pasture, conservation lands, urban, religious/cultural sites | ||
|Water Use=Agriculture or Irrigation, Fisheries - wild, Hydropower Generation, Livestock | |Water Use=Agriculture or Irrigation, Fisheries - wild, Hydropower Generation, Livestock | ||
| Line 143: | Line 142: | ||
|Stakeholder Type=Federated state/territorial/provincial government, Sovereign state/national/federal government | |Stakeholder Type=Federated state/territorial/provincial government, Sovereign state/national/federal government | ||
}} | }} | ||
| + | |ASI={{ASI | ||
|Contributor=Maria E. Martinez Murillo C. and Mark Rafferty (Tufts University) | |Contributor=Maria E. Martinez Murillo C. and Mark Rafferty (Tufts University) | ||
| − | |ASI===Problem Definition: a complex problem== | + | |ASI====Problem Definition: a complex problem=== |
The Turkish government has defined the problem according to its development priorities nationwide and specifically in the Southern Anatolian Region. Its concerns and objectives are the national sufficiency in the generation of electrical power; the economic growth of the poorest region in the country; as well as a greater central control of the Kurdish region, which has been immersed in several decades of ethnical conflict. Because of its effects on other areas such as the environment, cultural heritage, etc., opposition and new agendas have entered the definition of the project. | The Turkish government has defined the problem according to its development priorities nationwide and specifically in the Southern Anatolian Region. Its concerns and objectives are the national sufficiency in the generation of electrical power; the economic growth of the poorest region in the country; as well as a greater central control of the Kurdish region, which has been immersed in several decades of ethnical conflict. Because of its effects on other areas such as the environment, cultural heritage, etc., opposition and new agendas have entered the definition of the project. | ||
As Cohen and Davidson point out, the asymmetries between three levels of analysis (space, time and jurisdiction) present challenges for decision-making and governance; asymmetries bring up the question of which boundary choice is the most appropriate. For this analysis, we have defined the problem from the National Turkish perspective as a first step, since it is the path the project has followed so far. Nonetheless, the problem might and should be seen from a broader perspective in order to make better planning decisions. | As Cohen and Davidson point out, the asymmetries between three levels of analysis (space, time and jurisdiction) present challenges for decision-making and governance; asymmetries bring up the question of which boundary choice is the most appropriate. For this analysis, we have defined the problem from the National Turkish perspective as a first step, since it is the path the project has followed so far. Nonetheless, the problem might and should be seen from a broader perspective in order to make better planning decisions. | ||
| − | We may choose among different scales of analysis for watershed, problem-shed and policy-shed: space, time, jurisdiction or institutions. For example, if we only choose a short time scale of two years after the construction phase is finished, we may leave out of the evaluation of longer term effects, such as sedimentation, loss of endemic life, new economic activities for the displaced population. If we take a strictly local perspective (e.g. the Hasankeyf cultural site), we would concentrate on the archeological and cultural costs of this project, but leave out concerns of other archeological sites, potential international conflicts with Iraq and Syria, among many other issues. So, whether how the problem and scale is defined is of | + | We may choose among different scales of analysis for watershed, problem-shed and policy-shed: space, time, jurisdiction or institutions. For example, if we only choose a short time scale of two years after the construction phase is finished, we may leave out of the evaluation of longer term effects, such as sedimentation, loss of endemic life, new economic activities for the displaced population. If we take a strictly local perspective (e.g. the Hasankeyf cultural site), we would concentrate on the archeological and cultural costs of this project, but leave out concerns of other archeological sites, potential international conflicts with Iraq and Syria, among many other issues. So, whether how the problem and scale is defined is of upmost importance. |
Therefore, we consider that the problem should be analyzed taking in consideration its different dimensions and, for that, it first must be defined as a complex one due to its characteristics: | Therefore, we consider that the problem should be analyzed taking in consideration its different dimensions and, for that, it first must be defined as a complex one due to its characteristics: | ||
| − | First, it involves the interaction of natural, societal and political forces ( | + | First, it involves the interaction of natural, societal and political forces (explained in following section). Second, the social, natural and economic variables and processes that conform the network interact in such ways that they render unpredictable outcomes. This makes it difficult to plan according to the project’s objectives with a pure engineering thinking approach. |
Second, these objectives might be met from a technical point of view (although there are concerns about the correct engineering projection), but other issues such as the social and environmental impact could put at risk the accomplishment of such objectives and pose new challenges for the economic development of the region. Also, there is a conflicting order in the possible arrangement of preferences for the solution of this problem. For some actors, such as the government, an engineering approach and power generation is a top priority, while for others, the conservation of cultural heritage is the greatest concern. Conflicting priorities complicate the arrival to a “scientific”, widely accepted decision. | Second, these objectives might be met from a technical point of view (although there are concerns about the correct engineering projection), but other issues such as the social and environmental impact could put at risk the accomplishment of such objectives and pose new challenges for the economic development of the region. Also, there is a conflicting order in the possible arrangement of preferences for the solution of this problem. For some actors, such as the government, an engineering approach and power generation is a top priority, while for others, the conservation of cultural heritage is the greatest concern. Conflicting priorities complicate the arrival to a “scientific”, widely accepted decision. | ||
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| − | ==Suggestions on how to analyze the problem== | + | ===Suggestions on how to analyze the problem=== |
* We consider to be of the utmost importance to keep in mind larger problem and policy shed implications. Specifically, we consider the following additions to the Governmental definition of problem-shed and policy-shed: | * We consider to be of the utmost importance to keep in mind larger problem and policy shed implications. Specifically, we consider the following additions to the Governmental definition of problem-shed and policy-shed: | ||
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* Before the withdrawal of international funding in 2009, the policy-shed involved the interaction with rules and commitments with the other policy structures such as the ECA’s, World Bank and OECD. The policy shed might be more complex and broader if it attracts funds of international actors again or generate negative outcomes that bring in other stakeholders (e.g. international tribunal intervention due to Iraqi complaints, Chinese funding, UNESCO’s pronunciation, etc.). Authorities responsible for the project should be prepared to face such issues. | * Before the withdrawal of international funding in 2009, the policy-shed involved the interaction with rules and commitments with the other policy structures such as the ECA’s, World Bank and OECD. The policy shed might be more complex and broader if it attracts funds of international actors again or generate negative outcomes that bring in other stakeholders (e.g. international tribunal intervention due to Iraqi complaints, Chinese funding, UNESCO’s pronunciation, etc.). Authorities responsible for the project should be prepared to face such issues. | ||
| − | ==Variables, Issues and Stakeholders== | + | ===Variables, Issues and Stakeholders=== |
| − | ===Complex problem, complex interactions=== | + | ====Complex problem, complex interactions==== |
The Turkish government originally defined the system as a compound of dams for hydropower generation and irrigation purposes for the Southeastern Anatolia region (the GAP project). It has been under development since its conception in the 1950s and the Ilisu dam is seen by the authorities as one of the last elements to complete such system. Nonetheless, this system engineering approach assumes clearly defined boundaries, components that interact in predictable ways, and interactions that can be solved with an engineering toolkit. The aim is to find an optimal solution in terms of quality, reliability and cost effectiveness, according to the parameters defined. | The Turkish government originally defined the system as a compound of dams for hydropower generation and irrigation purposes for the Southeastern Anatolia region (the GAP project). It has been under development since its conception in the 1950s and the Ilisu dam is seen by the authorities as one of the last elements to complete such system. Nonetheless, this system engineering approach assumes clearly defined boundaries, components that interact in predictable ways, and interactions that can be solved with an engineering toolkit. The aim is to find an optimal solution in terms of quality, reliability and cost effectiveness, according to the parameters defined. | ||
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In practice, the network of variables, issues and stakeholders is very complex. In order to identify as clearly as possible these interactions, the variables analyzed are categorized in three different domains according to their main characteristics: natural (ND), social (SD) and political (PD). The variables are identified in italics and the main issues they pose are described as part of the text for each variable. Finally, Table 1 summarizes these elements and link them to the stakeholders already described. | In practice, the network of variables, issues and stakeholders is very complex. In order to identify as clearly as possible these interactions, the variables analyzed are categorized in three different domains according to their main characteristics: natural (ND), social (SD) and political (PD). The variables are identified in italics and the main issues they pose are described as part of the text for each variable. Finally, Table 1 summarizes these elements and link them to the stakeholders already described. | ||
| − | ===(ND) Natural domain === | + | ====(ND) Natural domain ==== |
| − | ====ND-1 Water quantity ==== | + | =====ND-1 Water quantity ===== |
The Tigris dams are used mainly for power generation and reduce the average flow of the river by 10%. In the case of the Euphrates River, dams diminish the flow by half. It is expected that the Ilisu dam will significantly decrease stream flow. | The Tigris dams are used mainly for power generation and reduce the average flow of the river by 10%. In the case of the Euphrates River, dams diminish the flow by half. It is expected that the Ilisu dam will significantly decrease stream flow. | ||
The dam will alter the seasonal flow pattern of water by saving the spring flows and releasing them during the fall. Since there are no commitments to maintain minimum flows downstream, Syria’s and Iraq’s flows will be significantly reduced below historical levels, specially with the construction of a complementary dam, Cizre, closer to the Syrian border. The flow will be diminished even more by calculated water use for irrigation. | The dam will alter the seasonal flow pattern of water by saving the spring flows and releasing them during the fall. Since there are no commitments to maintain minimum flows downstream, Syria’s and Iraq’s flows will be significantly reduced below historical levels, specially with the construction of a complementary dam, Cizre, closer to the Syrian border. The flow will be diminished even more by calculated water use for irrigation. | ||
| − | ====ND-2 Water quality==== | + | =====ND-2 Water quality===== |
Regarding water quality, the project will contribute to salinization and to an increase of pesticide concentration because it will reduce the Tigris capacity to auto purify. It is possible to have euthrophication of the reservoir water derived from the down flow of agricultural chemicals and organic matter. The degraded water quality will affect the growth of fish and water life; it will mean poor drinking water quality and affect the suitability of for consumption of fish coming from the reservoir. | Regarding water quality, the project will contribute to salinization and to an increase of pesticide concentration because it will reduce the Tigris capacity to auto purify. It is possible to have euthrophication of the reservoir water derived from the down flow of agricultural chemicals and organic matter. The degraded water quality will affect the growth of fish and water life; it will mean poor drinking water quality and affect the suitability of for consumption of fish coming from the reservoir. | ||
Sedimentation will also affect the quantity of water stored at the reservoir and the capacity to generate energy. It will also increase “…flood levels, waterlogging, and increased channel migration along tributary rivers upstream.” <ref="williams 2006">Williams, Philip B. and Setenay Bozkurt Frucht (2006). A review of the hydrologic and geomorphic impacts of the proposed Ilisu dam. Commissioned by World Economy, Ecology and Development (WEED). February 20, 2006. </ref> | Sedimentation will also affect the quantity of water stored at the reservoir and the capacity to generate energy. It will also increase “…flood levels, waterlogging, and increased channel migration along tributary rivers upstream.” <ref="williams 2006">Williams, Philip B. and Setenay Bozkurt Frucht (2006). A review of the hydrologic and geomorphic impacts of the proposed Ilisu dam. Commissioned by World Economy, Ecology and Development (WEED). February 20, 2006. </ref> | ||
| − | ====ND-3 Ecosystems ==== | + | =====ND-3 Ecosystems ===== |
The dam will impact 400 km of ecosystems developed along the Tigris and its tributaries (Botan, Batman and Salat), which will have further impacts downstream. Since, the material carried naturally by the river is useful for the productivity of the soil, without the natural flow, land will become less fertile for production and prone to salinization. Also, the dam’s storage capacity will be affected by the deposition of this material. Data from previous dams in the GAP project reflect high numbers of land salinization in areas such as the Harran plains. Of course, these factors will have a negative impact in endemic species and wildlife. Anoxic conditions also generate greenhouse gas methane emissions. | The dam will impact 400 km of ecosystems developed along the Tigris and its tributaries (Botan, Batman and Salat), which will have further impacts downstream. Since, the material carried naturally by the river is useful for the productivity of the soil, without the natural flow, land will become less fertile for production and prone to salinization. Also, the dam’s storage capacity will be affected by the deposition of this material. Data from previous dams in the GAP project reflect high numbers of land salinization in areas such as the Harran plains. Of course, these factors will have a negative impact in endemic species and wildlife. Anoxic conditions also generate greenhouse gas methane emissions. | ||
Ecological concerns are severe. Turkey has been affected by more of half a century of policies that disregard sustainability and prioritize the designed path for development. Challenges in this area are considerable and require a reconsideration of the institutional framework, policies, project quality standards and the involvement of local communities and non-governmental expertise. | Ecological concerns are severe. Turkey has been affected by more of half a century of policies that disregard sustainability and prioritize the designed path for development. Challenges in this area are considerable and require a reconsideration of the institutional framework, policies, project quality standards and the involvement of local communities and non-governmental expertise. | ||
| − | ===(SD) Societal domain=== | + | ====(SD) Societal domain==== |
| − | ====SD-1 Governance, Legal Framework and Institutions==== | + | =====SD-1 Governance, Legal Framework and Institutions===== |
Turkey is bound by the UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of Transboundary Waterways, whose purpose is to prevent significant negative impacts of projects on international waterways on other riparian countries. With its attempt to find financing mechanisms internationally, Turkey also committed to the compliment of international standards. Nonetheless, Turkish national laws have conflicting points with such international legal framework. | Turkey is bound by the UN Convention on the Non-Navigational Uses of Transboundary Waterways, whose purpose is to prevent significant negative impacts of projects on international waterways on other riparian countries. With its attempt to find financing mechanisms internationally, Turkey also committed to the compliment of international standards. Nonetheless, Turkish national laws have conflicting points with such international legal framework. | ||
* The national legal framework enables expropriation {{needs reference | comment=(Art, 27)?}} even before the court cases are resolved. | * The national legal framework enables expropriation {{needs reference | comment=(Art, 27)?}} even before the court cases are resolved. | ||
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* In general, environmental laws are being modified or ignored in favor of dam construction. The priority of the state is the development of the GAP project, an issue that puts at risks the richness of Turkey’s biodiversity<ref="seker 2011"> Sekerciouglu, C. H., et al. (2011). Turkey’s globally important biodiversity in crisis. Biological conservation doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.06.025. in press. Available at www.elsavier.com/locate/biocon</ref> | * In general, environmental laws are being modified or ignored in favor of dam construction. The priority of the state is the development of the GAP project, an issue that puts at risks the richness of Turkey’s biodiversity<ref="seker 2011"> Sekerciouglu, C. H., et al. (2011). Turkey’s globally important biodiversity in crisis. Biological conservation doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2011.06.025. in press. Available at www.elsavier.com/locate/biocon</ref> | ||
| − | ====SD-2 Economy==== | + | =====SD-2 Economy===== |
* Electricity production | * Electricity production | ||
The dam is planned to have a capacity of 1,200MW, and is expected to produce 3,800 GWh of hydroelectric power annually; it will also be used for irrigation. It is important to point out that Turkey’s demand increases 8% annually and sufficient energy is a concern for Turkey’s economic development. Nonetheless, the project will only cover 2% of the national electric power needs. | The dam is planned to have a capacity of 1,200MW, and is expected to produce 3,800 GWh of hydroelectric power annually; it will also be used for irrigation. It is important to point out that Turkey’s demand increases 8% annually and sufficient energy is a concern for Turkey’s economic development. Nonetheless, the project will only cover 2% of the national electric power needs. | ||
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Compensation is not enough to buy a similar home and have a similar source of income after resettlement. Many inhabitants will face a diminished income due to incurred debts in order to get a new property similar to the one left behind, since the resettlement programs are loan-based. | Compensation is not enough to buy a similar home and have a similar source of income after resettlement. Many inhabitants will face a diminished income due to incurred debts in order to get a new property similar to the one left behind, since the resettlement programs are loan-based. | ||
| − | ====SD-3 Archeological / Cultural impact==== | + | =====SD-3 Archeological / Cultural impact===== |
The Ilisu reservoir will flood Hasankeyf, a cultural site that could be part of Unesco’s World Heritage, as well as hundreds of other sites, including valuable remains of Neolithic civilization. Hasankeyf is a rich multicultural treasure lasting several centuries and has been protected by Turkish authorities as a conservation spot. An efficient plan for reallocation of Hasanleyf’s monuments is also a concern. Furthermore, Hasankeyf is not the only site to be affected. | The Ilisu reservoir will flood Hasankeyf, a cultural site that could be part of Unesco’s World Heritage, as well as hundreds of other sites, including valuable remains of Neolithic civilization. Hasankeyf is a rich multicultural treasure lasting several centuries and has been protected by Turkish authorities as a conservation spot. An efficient plan for reallocation of Hasanleyf’s monuments is also a concern. Furthermore, Hasankeyf is not the only site to be affected. | ||
| − | ====SD-4 Health concerns==== | + | =====SD-4 Health concerns===== |
If water drops below the minimum level of operation (485 meters), the area exposed with humid areas and water pools is suitable for malaria and other water born diseases. It seems that this is a current problem in the dams already constructed by the GAP project: “at an average, 80% of diseases spread through water contagion in Turkey occur in the GAP region.” <ref name="Ogur" />. | If water drops below the minimum level of operation (485 meters), the area exposed with humid areas and water pools is suitable for malaria and other water born diseases. It seems that this is a current problem in the dams already constructed by the GAP project: “at an average, 80% of diseases spread through water contagion in Turkey occur in the GAP region.” <ref name="Ogur" />. | ||
| − | ===(PD) Political processes=== | + | ====(PD) Political processes==== |
| − | ====PD-1 Power shift in favor of Turkey vis à vis its neighbors ==== | + | =====PD-1 Power shift in favor of Turkey vis à vis its neighbors ===== |
The project will have enough spare capacity as to block water going downstream to Iraq and Syria, for several months. This will mean a possible political pressure in hands of Turkey and a strengthening of its bargaining position in the region. | The project will have enough spare capacity as to block water going downstream to Iraq and Syria, for several months. This will mean a possible political pressure in hands of Turkey and a strengthening of its bargaining position in the region. | ||
| − | ====PD-2 Social control over East Anatolia Kurdish region.==== | + | =====PD-2 Social control over East Anatolia Kurdish region.===== |
The armed conflicts between the Kurdish Workers’ Party PKK and the military forces of Turkey has created two processes: one, the perpetuation of lack of trust, fear and lack of participation of directly affected population; another, the government promotion of a centrally driven project that diminishes the power of conflicting Kurdish groups. The displacement of population and the potential development of other industries and economic projects in the region, enable the central government to get a tighter control over a conflicting and unruly area. | The armed conflicts between the Kurdish Workers’ Party PKK and the military forces of Turkey has created two processes: one, the perpetuation of lack of trust, fear and lack of participation of directly affected population; another, the government promotion of a centrally driven project that diminishes the power of conflicting Kurdish groups. The displacement of population and the potential development of other industries and economic projects in the region, enable the central government to get a tighter control over a conflicting and unruly area. | ||
| − | ====PD-3 Alliances and pressures from international actors==== | + | =====PD-3 Alliances and pressures from international actors===== |
The Turkish government has been subject to pressures from European Export Credit Agencies (ECAs), European NGOs and social movements inside the country to redefine the project and comply with international standards. This was something outside the project’s foreseen course of action. | The Turkish government has been subject to pressures from European Export Credit Agencies (ECAs), European NGOs and social movements inside the country to redefine the project and comply with international standards. This was something outside the project’s foreseen course of action. | ||
| − | ==Stakeholders== | + | ===Stakeholders=== |
Regarding stakeholders, it is important to point out the role that groups from civil society have played in this case. NGOs and independent experts have influenced the course of events in the Ilisu Dam project. NGOs played a decisive role for ECAs to require the compliment with international standards and for the implementation of the Committee of Experts. Have the recommendations been followed by the Turkish parties, the project would have benefited from an adjustment process and better results. Civil organizations have also been effective in the transmission of valuable up-to date information in the site. This provided a way to keep the decisions more appealing to reality and flexible, and link them at an international level with other organizations and institutions (NGOs, World Bank, etc.). They also managed to institutionalize their action in an organized and plural way (for example, “Keep Hasankeyf Alive”). | Regarding stakeholders, it is important to point out the role that groups from civil society have played in this case. NGOs and independent experts have influenced the course of events in the Ilisu Dam project. NGOs played a decisive role for ECAs to require the compliment with international standards and for the implementation of the Committee of Experts. Have the recommendations been followed by the Turkish parties, the project would have benefited from an adjustment process and better results. Civil organizations have also been effective in the transmission of valuable up-to date information in the site. This provided a way to keep the decisions more appealing to reality and flexible, and link them at an international level with other organizations and institutions (NGOs, World Bank, etc.). They also managed to institutionalize their action in an organized and plural way (for example, “Keep Hasankeyf Alive”). | ||
The players involved have exercised a crucial role, although some of them were not considered at the beginning. They all have helped to formulate a more consistent project and to avoid the implementation of a project with considerable negative effects. The most relevant player that has been left out is the directly affected population: subsistence farmers and local workers that are dispersed and fear participation or opposition due to political reasons. | The players involved have exercised a crucial role, although some of them were not considered at the beginning. They all have helped to formulate a more consistent project and to avoid the implementation of a project with considerable negative effects. The most relevant player that has been left out is the directly affected population: subsistence farmers and local workers that are dispersed and fear participation or opposition due to political reasons. | ||
| − | ==Network Representation== | + | ===Network Representation=== |
[[File:Murillo rafferty ilisu network.png | 600px | Network Representation]] | [[File:Murillo rafferty ilisu network.png | 600px | Network Representation]] | ||
| − | ==Synthesis== | + | ===Synthesis=== |
| − | ==Final Remarks and Lessons Learned== | + | ===Final Remarks and Lessons Learned=== |
At the center of complex water problems, such as the Ilisu Dam development, are three characteristics. First, they are part of a network of interactions that are open, continuously changing and with dynamic boundaries. These elements lead to unpredictable outcomes and, as such, must be planned accordingly. | At the center of complex water problems, such as the Ilisu Dam development, are three characteristics. First, they are part of a network of interactions that are open, continuously changing and with dynamic boundaries. These elements lead to unpredictable outcomes and, as such, must be planned accordingly. | ||
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# Conflicting priorities are difficult to sort out without a participatory process. For example, economic gains are being questioned in face of the possible costs in terms of cultural destruction. Energy production and regional economic gains are faced by long-term concerns of loss of invaluable historical sites. It is very difficult to evaluate such different types of priorities because very different sets of values are assumed. It is highly recommended that scenario planning is made with enough reliable data. It must be discussed broadly in order to find creative and participatory solutions. | # Conflicting priorities are difficult to sort out without a participatory process. For example, economic gains are being questioned in face of the possible costs in terms of cultural destruction. Energy production and regional economic gains are faced by long-term concerns of loss of invaluable historical sites. It is very difficult to evaluate such different types of priorities because very different sets of values are assumed. It is highly recommended that scenario planning is made with enough reliable data. It must be discussed broadly in order to find creative and participatory solutions. | ||
| − | ==Scenarios and recommended intervention points== | + | ===Scenarios and recommended intervention points=== |
Continue with the construction of Ilisu Dam. Although the European funding was withdrawn in 2009, the construction of the dam with solely Turkish financial sources is already underway. Considering that Turkish government’s priority is to complete the established plan for the GAP, it is very likely that Ilisu will not be an exception. In this case, the following are recommended intervention points: | Continue with the construction of Ilisu Dam. Although the European funding was withdrawn in 2009, the construction of the dam with solely Turkish financial sources is already underway. Considering that Turkish government’s priority is to complete the established plan for the GAP, it is very likely that Ilisu will not be an exception. In this case, the following are recommended intervention points: | ||
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In any case, there are enough possibilities to be explored and enough know-how developed in the country as to work on a comprehensive and participatory scenario planning that would lead to better outcomes for stakeholders. Unfortunately, Turkey’s national policy is not making enough room for discussing possible alternatives. | In any case, there are enough possibilities to be explored and enough know-how developed in the country as to work on a comprehensive and participatory scenario planning that would lead to better outcomes for stakeholders. Unfortunately, Turkey’s national policy is not making enough room for discussing possible alternatives. | ||
|User=Mark Rafferty | |User=Mark Rafferty | ||
| + | }} | ||
|Key Questions= | |Key Questions= | ||
|Summary=The Ilisu Dam Project on the Tigris River in Turkey is one of the world’s most controversial hydropower projects. As part of the Turkish Government’s Greater Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), the project is intended to reduce Turkey’s high dependency on energy imports while developing the country’s poorest region. The GAP includes the construction of a total of 22 dams, including 19 hydropower plants and 3 dams for irrigation, 15 of which have already been built. | |Summary=The Ilisu Dam Project on the Tigris River in Turkey is one of the world’s most controversial hydropower projects. As part of the Turkish Government’s Greater Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), the project is intended to reduce Turkey’s high dependency on energy imports while developing the country’s poorest region. The GAP includes the construction of a total of 22 dams, including 19 hydropower plants and 3 dams for irrigation, 15 of which have already been built. | ||
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Finally, understanding context-specific information implies the involvement of local actors. Without doing so, it would be difficult to figure out efficient and stable solutions. In the Ilisu Dam, local involvement has been left aside due to the lack of trust after a history of civil conflict in the Anatolian Region. Additionally, there was no initial involvement of social and local representatives of environmental, cultural or economic matters. Although it was not a foreseen outcome, the government has been obliged to face pressure from non-governmental groups. Now that they are part of the network of actors, both nationally and internationally, they have put at risk the financial viability of the project. | Finally, understanding context-specific information implies the involvement of local actors. Without doing so, it would be difficult to figure out efficient and stable solutions. In the Ilisu Dam, local involvement has been left aside due to the lack of trust after a history of civil conflict in the Anatolian Region. Additionally, there was no initial involvement of social and local representatives of environmental, cultural or economic matters. Although it was not a foreseen outcome, the government has been obliged to face pressure from non-governmental groups. Now that they are part of the network of actors, both nationally and internationally, they have put at risk the financial viability of the project. | ||
| − | |Empty Section= | + | |External Links={{External Link |
| − | |Clean Up Required= | + | |Link Text=Official GAP Project Website (English Language) |
| + | |Link Address=http://www.gap.gov.tr/english | ||
| + | |Link Description=The official English version of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) governmental page describing the project, history, news, investments, etc. | ||
| + | }} | ||
| + | |Case Review={{Case Review Boxes | ||
| + | |Empty Section=Yes | ||
| + | |Clean Up Required=Yes | ||
|Expand Section=No | |Expand Section=No | ||
|Add References=Yes | |Add References=Yes | ||
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|Disputed=No | |Disputed=No | ||
|Mpov=Yes | |Mpov=Yes | ||
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Latest revision as of 15:51, 26 July 2012
| Total Population | .07878,000,000 millionmillion |
|---|---|
| Total Area | 57,61457,614 km² 22,244.765 mi² km2 |
| Climate Descriptors | Semi-arid/steppe (Köppen B-type) |
| Predominent Land Use Descriptors | agricultural- cropland and pasture, conservation lands, urban, religious/cultural sites |
| Important Uses of Water | Agriculture or Irrigation, Fisheries - wild, Hydropower Generation, Livestock |
| Water Features: | Upper Tigris Basin (Turkey) |
| Water Projects: | South Eastern Anatolia (GAP) Project, Ilisu Dam |
Contents
Summary
The Ilisu Dam Project on the Tigris River in Turkey is one of the world’s most controversial hydropower projects. As part of the Turkish Government’s Greater Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP), the project is intended to reduce Turkey’s high dependency on energy imports while developing the country’s poorest region. The GAP includes the construction of a total of 22 dams, including 19 hydropower plants and 3 dams for irrigation, 15 of which have already been built.
This case exemplifies a project where there is a need to promote a more inclusive and integral planning to reach better outcomes, both regarding different scales (time and space) and domains (natural, societal and political). It is a complex water problem because social, natural and economic variables and processes that conform the network interact in ways that render unpredictable outcomes. Therefore, it is difficult to plan while only considering objectives with a pure engineering logic. Issues such as social and environmental impact will put at risk the accomplishment of objectives as seen by Turkey’s government (generation of electricity and water for irrigation) and pose new challenges for the economic development of the region.
Also, there is a conflicting order in the possible arrangement of preferences of the different actors involved. For some actors, power generation is a top priority, while for others, the conservation of cultural heritage is the greatest concern. Conflicting priorities make it difficult to arrive to a straightforward outcome that are easily approved by all actors.
Additionally, the case also presents an open and continuously changing network of processes and actors. There are several continuously changing issues, like unpredictable climate conditions as well as social interactions; the former lead to challenging contexts such as drought, while the latter lead to the articulation of new social pressure groups. The changing network is enforced by dynamic and porous boundaries; in other words, the watershed boundaries do not form a closed system.
Finally, understanding context-specific information implies the involvement of local actors. Without doing so, it would be difficult to figure out efficient and stable solutions. In the Ilisu Dam, local involvement has been left aside due to the lack of trust after a history of civil conflict in the Anatolian Region. Additionally, there was no initial involvement of social and local representatives of environmental, cultural or economic matters. Although it was not a foreseen outcome, the government has been obliged to face pressure from non-governmental groups. Now that they are part of the network of actors, both nationally and internationally, they have put at risk the financial viability of the project.
Natural, Historic, Economic, Regional, and Political Framework
Historical, Social, and Political Factors
It is impossible to understand water issues in this basin without paying due attention to the longstanding political and social factors that shape life in the region. One of the most important of these factors is the basin’s population itself.
A Century of Ethnic Conflict
Southeastern Turkey is primarily inhabited by Kurds, members of an Indo-European ethno-linguistic group that consider themselves distinct from the Turkish-speaking majority of Turkey. Currently, between 9% to 13% of Turkey’s residents self-identify as Kurds [1]. As Kurds in Turkey, Iraq, Syria, and Iran have long aspired to a nation state of their own, the Kurds’ inclusion in modern day Turkey has posed existential problems for both the minority and the state.
The Turkish Republic, which was founded in 1923 after a long war of independence against major European states, rests upon an ideology of secular nationalism that emphasizes the geographic, ethnic, and linguistic unity of the Turkish State [2]. Turkish politics is also dominated by an ideological tendency toward centralized government control and state led economic development for the benefit of the Turkish people. The Turkish Government until 2002 denied the existence of a Kurdish identity and banned the use of the Kurdish language in the media official contexts.[1]
In response to what many Kurds feel has been political, economic, and ideological disenfranchisement, Kurdish communities have waged a number of uprisings against the Turkish state. During the 1980s and 1990s, the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) waged a bloody insurgency against the state; in the years of strife between the insurgents and the Turkish government, tens of thousands were killed. (Estimates are disputed, but go as high as 40,000) Although recent changes of government have produced policy changes more favorable to Kurdish communities, relations between the Kurdish periphery and the Turkish center are characterized by mistrust and resentment. At the same time, the region remains severely underdeveloped, as evidenced by poor development indicators in almost all sectors (see Economics section below).
State Development
For leaders in the Turkish government, development of the region has a number of significant advantages. Projects within the GAP may boost the standard of living in the region and may serve to quiet discontent and agitation while improving the standing of the government in the eyes of the Kurdish population. While creating jobs and economic opportunities, the government hopes to reduce support for armed groups, particularly the PKK. In addition, the completion of the GAP project can be seen as an issue of national pride for the government that represents centralized control of the periphery, continuity of a project across multiple administrations, and top down development and control. In addition to the economic benefits that the entire country will derive from the project, many Turkish leaders hope to gain electoral boosts from their constituents as the project is completed [3]
Kurdish and local government leaders in the provinces affected by the GAP Project have complained of feeling left out of the development process. For many in Southeast Anatolia, the government is another attempt by the central government to exercise its muscle in the region at the expense of local interests.
Membership aspirations: the European Union
Many Turkish leaders hope to incorporate Turkey into the European Union in the near future, and so there is considerable pressure on the Turkish Government to conform to standards and norms of the EU community. While Turkish leadership remains nationalistic and protective of state sovereignty, it is eager to prove itself a responsible state and a good candidate for EU membership.
Water Regime Information
To date, there is no formal international agreement between the riparian states governing the use of the Tigris waters. While the Tigris and the Euphrates Rivers have long been sources of tension of relations between Turkey, Syria, and Iraq, the Tigris has often been eclipsed by the Euphrates in terms of discussion and negotiations because of the Euphrates’ relatively large flow. Thus, it seems that the lack of standing agreement on the water’s use has been less problematic for the Tigris than it has been for the Euphrates. Turkey has not guaranteed any minimum flow out of the country, but as of now, informal arrangements for the basic provision of water seem to suffice. ( citation needed)
Attempts to forge international agreements governing the use of the Tigris and Euphrates have been undertaken in the 1920s, 1940s, and 1980s, but none produced a lasting regime. Syria, which is only riparian to 32 km of the river at its border, has limited opportunities to extract water from the Tigris and so has not made competition for its water a high priority (FAO) On the other hand, distribution of the waters of the Tigris have been a significant source of tension for Iraqi-Turkish relations. Despite Turkey’s claims that it has obtained consent from Iraq regarding the GAP, the Iraqi government denies this [4]
Major Economic Factors
Southeastern Turkey, under emergency rule until only recently and still a hotbed for occasional insurgent attacks, is a region that is severely underdeveloped. Across the region, literacy rates are lower, unemployment and fertility rates are higher than in the rest of the country, making it the poorest region of Turkey. In all major cities in the area, unemployment is estimated to be around 50% [5].
In 1997, the region’s per capita GDP was less than half the national average. In different provinces, between 21.8% and 44.7% of households fall below the poverty line <ref="unver 2001" > Unver, I.H. Olcay. (October 2001). “Southeastern Turkey, Sustainable Development and Foreign Investment”, Prepared by the GAP Regional Development Administration for the OECD-China Conference on FDI in China’s Regional Development.</ref>. For the residents of the region, there is a need for infrastructure development and the opening of economic opportunities.
Issues and Stakeholders
Decreased downstream flow will have ecological, human, and economic consequences
NSPD: Water Quantity
Stakeholder Types: Federated state/territorial/provincial government, Sovereign state/national/federal government, Environmental interest, Industry/Corporate Interest
Sub-Issues:
- Greater decreased downstream flow
- No commitments on minimum flows downstream
- Increased flood levels, channel migration upstream and diminished capacity for energy-generation due to sedimentation
Stakeholders for these issues:
- Environmental NGO’s (environmental interest)
- Iraq and Syria (National Government)
- Turkey (National Government)
- Upstream localities /river tributaries (Local Governments)
- Potential industrial investors (Industry/Corporate interest)
Water quality impacts from dam construction/implementation have not been addressed
NSPD: Water Quality
Stakeholder Types: Sovereign state/national/federal government, Environmental interest, Industry/Corporate Interest, Community or organized citizens
There is a great possibility of poor drinking water quality and impacts to aquatic life due to: a) salinization; b) pesticide concentration increase; c) potential euthrophication of the reservoir water.
Stakeholders for this issue:
- Environmental NGO’s (environmental interest)
- Farmers, local settlers (Community)
- Potential industrial investors (Industry/Corporate interest)
- Turkey (National Government)
Both natural and agricultural ecosystems will be affected.
NSPD: Ecosystems
Stakeholder Types: Environmental interest, Industry/Corporate Interest, Community or organized citizens
Sub-Issues:
- Negative impact of 400 km of ecosystems along the river and its tributaries
- Diminished fertility of land for production; prone to salinization
Stakeholders for these issues:
- Farmers (community/Corporate interest)
- Environmental NGO’s (Environmental interest)
No process was provided for input by affected populations
NSPD: Governance
Stakeholder Types: Non-legislative governmental agency, Development/humanitarian interest, Industry/Corporate Interest, Community or organized citizens
- Inadequate protection of displaced population at dam/reservoir site
- Lack of consultation processes for addressing the displacement of local population
Stakeholders for these issues:
- Displaced communities (Community)
- NGOs (Organized Citizens)
- ECAs, possible investors (Development/humanitarian interest, Industry/Corporate Interest)
Economic benefits are limited and long-term impacts are likely negative
NSPD: Assets
Stakeholder Types: Industry/Corporate Interest, Community or organized citizens
Sub-Issues: Low temporary job creation by dam project in a region with high unemployment and illiteracy rates. Potential increase of urban poverty and social conflict due to: a) lack of alternative subsistence means for displaced population; b) diminished income for displaced population; c) Loss of 6,000 hectares of high quality agricultural land; potential loss of productivity of irrigated land
Stakeholders for these issues: Big cities and muncipal governments (Local governments) Displaced communities (Community)
Farmers (Community/Corporate interest)Archaeological and Cultural sites are slated for inundation.
NSPD: Assets, Values and Norms
Stakeholder Types: Federated state/territorial/provincial government, Industry/Corporate Interest, Community or organized citizens
The Ilisu dam will flood Hasankeyf and hundreds of historical/archaeological sites. There is uncertainty about reallocation plans for archeological patrimony.
Stakeholders for this issue:
- Municipal governments (Local governments)
- Current communities dependant on tourism (Community)
- NGOs (Cultural interests)
Potential increase of malaria and water born diseases
NSPD: Water Quality, Ecosystems
Stakeholder Types: Sovereign state/national/federal government, Community or organized citizens
Stakeholders for this issue: Local governments and communities (Community)
Turkey (National Government)Political processes will be influenced not only after dam completion, but by the process of funding and building the Ilisu dam
NSPD: Governance
Stakeholder Types: Federated state/territorial/provincial government, Sovereign state/national/federal government
Sub-issues:
- Power shift in favor of Turkey vis à vis Iraq and Syria through control of water flow downstream
- Social control over East Anatolia Kurdish region
- Pressure from international actors (ECAs, NGOs) and social national movements to comply with international standards.
Stakeholders for these issues: Irak and Syria (National Government) Kurds (Community. Local Gov.) NGOs (cultural interests)
European governments (National governments)
Analysis, Synthesis, and Insight
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External Links
- Official GAP Project Website (English Language) — The official English version of the Southeastern Anatolia Project (GAP) governmental page describing the project, history, news, investments, etc.
- ^ 1.0 1.1 Garfield, Samuel Holden. (2010). “The Kurdish Struggle for Recognition in Turkey: Towards an Expanded Model of Recognition”, in Issues, the Jackson School Journal for International Studies, Vol. 1 No. 1. Accessible at https://depts.washington.edu/jsjweb/?page_id=17
- ^ Robbins, Philip. (1993). “The Overlord State: Turkish Policy and the Kurdish Issue”, in International Affairs, the Royal Institute of Internatonal Affairs, Vol. 69 No. 4.
- ^ Carkoglu, Ali, and Eder, Mine. (January 2001). “Domestic Concerns and the Water Conflict over the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin, in Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 37, No. 1.
- ^ Kurdish Human Rights Project. (June 2007). “The Ilisu Dam Project: A Flawed Plan is Revived Unchanged”, KHRP Briefing Paper, published by the Kurdish Human Rights Project. Available at http://www.khrp.org/index.php.
- ^ Ronayne, Maggie. (February 2005). “The Cultural and Environmental Impact of Large Dams in Southeast Turkey”, Fact-Finding Mission Report, National University of Ireland, Galway, and the Kurdish Human Rights Project.
