Difference between revisions of "Creative Options and Value Creation to Address Water Security in the Eastern Nile Basin"
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We develop our research in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB), Africa, where several aspects raise concerns in the international community and local stakeholders in terms of water resources availability and scenarios of potential water crisis. Population increase and climate change are often flagged as major concerns, but unfortunately not the only ones that need to be addressed. | We develop our research in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB), Africa, where several aspects raise concerns in the international community and local stakeholders in terms of water resources availability and scenarios of potential water crisis. Population increase and climate change are often flagged as major concerns, but unfortunately not the only ones that need to be addressed. | ||
One way of understanding the water situation in the region is through the five indicators on water-quantity-related risks developed by the (Gassert, Reig, Luo, & Maddocks, 2013) (available at www.wri.org). These five indicators range from 1 to 5 (low to high risk), and countries and regions rank differently depending on the indicator. For example, Eritrea is at very high risk in terms of inter-annual variability, Ethiopia and Sudan are at high risk regarding seasonal variability and flood occurrence, while Egypt is at high risk before drought severity. Other relevant figures help depict the region in terms of socio-economic development and most of them hit the red zone of any colorful visualization. According to United Nations estimates, the total population in the Eastern Nile (EN) countries increased by 50% between 2000 and 2015, overpassing 487 million. Yet, EN countries are not at the best in terms of welfare and stability. Most of them are low-income countries according to the World Bank, show the lowest values for Human Development Index based on United Nations’ classification, and stability and social pressures pose these countries under the ‘alert’ flag according to the Fragile State Index by the Fund for Peace. Climate change projections are not clear in the Nile Basin, as they are consistent in terms of rising temperatures, but not in terms of rainfall. North Africa might become hotter and drier, with an increase in the evaporation component of the hydrologic budget (Conway, 2005; Islam & Susskind, 2015), and current trends in economic development and land use patterns might increase the pressure on freshwater (Islam & Susskind, 2015). One clear example of this is the crop intensification practices (MWRI, 2014) and the land reclamation program in Egypt (FAO-AQUASTAT, 2015). | One way of understanding the water situation in the region is through the five indicators on water-quantity-related risks developed by the (Gassert, Reig, Luo, & Maddocks, 2013) (available at www.wri.org). These five indicators range from 1 to 5 (low to high risk), and countries and regions rank differently depending on the indicator. For example, Eritrea is at very high risk in terms of inter-annual variability, Ethiopia and Sudan are at high risk regarding seasonal variability and flood occurrence, while Egypt is at high risk before drought severity. Other relevant figures help depict the region in terms of socio-economic development and most of them hit the red zone of any colorful visualization. According to United Nations estimates, the total population in the Eastern Nile (EN) countries increased by 50% between 2000 and 2015, overpassing 487 million. Yet, EN countries are not at the best in terms of welfare and stability. Most of them are low-income countries according to the World Bank, show the lowest values for Human Development Index based on United Nations’ classification, and stability and social pressures pose these countries under the ‘alert’ flag according to the Fragile State Index by the Fund for Peace. Climate change projections are not clear in the Nile Basin, as they are consistent in terms of rising temperatures, but not in terms of rainfall. North Africa might become hotter and drier, with an increase in the evaporation component of the hydrologic budget (Conway, 2005; Islam & Susskind, 2015), and current trends in economic development and land use patterns might increase the pressure on freshwater (Islam & Susskind, 2015). One clear example of this is the crop intensification practices (MWRI, 2014) and the land reclamation program in Egypt (FAO-AQUASTAT, 2015). | ||
Revision as of 15:46, 18 December 2015
| Geolocation: | 12° 51' 46.1052", 30° 13' 3.4896" |
|---|---|
| Total Population | 156156,000,000 millionmillion |
| Total Area | 20000002,000,000 km² 772,200 mi² km2 |
| Climate Descriptors | Arid/desert (Köppen B-type), Monsoon |
| Predominent Land Use Descriptors | agricultural- cropland and pasture, conservation lands, urban- high density |
| Important Uses of Water | Agriculture or Irrigation, Domestic/Urban Supply, Hydropower Generation, Other Ecological Services |
Contents
Summary
Natural, Historic, Economic, Regional, and Political Framework
Overview
We develop our research in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB), Africa, where several aspects raise concerns in the international community and local stakeholders in terms of water resources availability and scenarios of potential water crisis. Population increase and climate change are often flagged as major concerns, but unfortunately not the only ones that need to be addressed. One way of understanding the water situation in the region is through the five indicators on water-quantity-related risks developed by the (Gassert, Reig, Luo, & Maddocks, 2013) (available at www.wri.org). These five indicators range from 1 to 5 (low to high risk), and countries and regions rank differently depending on the indicator. For example, Eritrea is at very high risk in terms of inter-annual variability, Ethiopia and Sudan are at high risk regarding seasonal variability and flood occurrence, while Egypt is at high risk before drought severity. Other relevant figures help depict the region in terms of socio-economic development and most of them hit the red zone of any colorful visualization. According to United Nations estimates, the total population in the Eastern Nile (EN) countries increased by 50% between 2000 and 2015, overpassing 487 million. Yet, EN countries are not at the best in terms of welfare and stability. Most of them are low-income countries according to the World Bank, show the lowest values for Human Development Index based on United Nations’ classification, and stability and social pressures pose these countries under the ‘alert’ flag according to the Fragile State Index by the Fund for Peace. Climate change projections are not clear in the Nile Basin, as they are consistent in terms of rising temperatures, but not in terms of rainfall. North Africa might become hotter and drier, with an increase in the evaporation component of the hydrologic budget (Conway, 2005; Islam & Susskind, 2015), and current trends in economic development and land use patterns might increase the pressure on freshwater (Islam & Susskind, 2015). One clear example of this is the crop intensification practices (MWRI, 2014) and the land reclamation program in Egypt (FAO-AQUASTAT, 2015). “Water is clearly a major factor in socio-economic recovery and development in Africa. The continent appears to be blessed with substantial rainfall and water resources. Yet, it has severe and complex natural and man-made problems that constrain the exploitation and proper development of its water resources potential” (UN Water/Africa, N.D.).
Issues and Stakeholders
Water quantity. Nature or management issues?
NSPD: Water Quantity, Ecosystems, Governance
Stakeholder Types: Sovereign state/national/federal government, Local Government, Supranational union, Development/humanitarian interest, Environmental interest
It is claimed North Africa ran out of renewable freshwater decades ago, meaning the available water resources in the region are insufficient to meet food requirements (Qadir, Sharma, Bruggeman, Choukr-Allah, & Karajeh, 2007). Meanwhile, the total annual rainfall in the entire Nile Basin averages 2,000 BCM (Awulachew, 2012; Islam & Susskind, 2015), and less than 5% makes it to Lake Nasser. There is a supply-demand gap in the region, likely as result of naturally uneven distribution of the water (hydrologic problem) combined with a water resources mismanagement (human problem).
Some stakeholders linked to this issue are: local, state/province, and national governments within EN basin (Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan); multi-national institutions (UN, World Bank, Nile Basin Initiative, RAMSAR Committee, etc.) development/humanitarian NGOs (Water.org, Oxfam, etc.), irrigation districts/schemes, water utilities, energy companies.Water for what? The water-food-energy nexus.
NSPD: Water Quantity, Governance, Assets, Values and Norms
Stakeholder Types: Sovereign state/national/federal government, Local Government, Supranational union, Development/humanitarian interest, Environmental interest, Industry/Corporate Interest
The gap in water supply and demand is far from encapsulated. Quite the opposite, it is complexly intertwined with other social, political, and economical aspects. More population implies more drinking water and more food as well; food whose production demands more water. Energy access is also a constraint in the region, particularly in the Sub-Saharan countries where 70% of people lack of access to reliable energy sources. Food and energy security turn out to be intimately related to water (water-food-energy nexus) when addressing the question of water either for irrigation and food production to fight poverty, or power generation to boost industrialization.
Some of the stakeholders linked to this issue are: national governments within EN basin (Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan); import/export-linked foreign countries (EU, USA, China); multi-national institutions (UN, World Bank, Nile Basin Initiative, RAMSAR Committee, World Trade Organization) development/humanitarian NGOs (Water.org, Oxfam), corporate interests (irrigation districts/schemes, energy companies, oil-and-gas companies)
Analysis, Synthesis, and Insight
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