Revision as of 14:00, 22 January 2014

Summary

The Central Asian country of Kyrgyzstan is seeking to expand its economy through the construction of an additional hydropower dam on the Syr Darya River upstream from the largest water using countries, potentially restricting their flows for irrigated agriculture. The Syr Darya originates in Kyrgyzstan and flows through Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kazakhstan before flowing into what remains of the Aral Sea. Agriculture represents about 89 percent of total water withdrawals in the Syr Darya Basin, and the countries of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan account for over 80 of the water used in agriculture in the Basin. Planned construction of the Kambarata-1 dam by Kyrgyzstan, has led to threats of conflict by Uzbekistan. Here we find that the water management structure organized under the Soviet Union fails to meet the independent development goals of each nation. Irrigation methods used in the region are among the least water efficient forms of irrigation used today, causing land degradation and creating an artificial shortage of water that drives tensions over use of transboundary waters. Alternative water management models must be used to prevent conflict and allow for economic development in the region.

The key question addressed in this case is: What effective mechanisms can downstream riparians use to protect their water related interests/rights? Here we find that reducing demand in agriculture could improve water availability by making water a more flexible resource and reduce tensions over allocation, while at the same time allowing for economic development upstream. Additional potential for mutual gains solutions exists in co-investment of upstream infrastructure by downstream countries. This is a highly challenging water management situation that has seen multiple attempts at resolution fail. Further research is necessary to further develop the ideas put forth in this paper and to assess their likelihood of success.

Natural, Historic, Economic, Regional, and Political Framework

The Syr Darya River Basin The Syr Darya is formed by the confluence of the Naryn and Kara Darya Rivers, which originate in the Tian Shan Mountains of Kyrgyzstan. About 75 percent of the runoff forming the river comes from Kyrgyzstan. The Syr Darya flows through Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan before entering Kazakhstan and flowing into the northern part of what was once the Aral Sea. Its total length is about 2,800 kilometers. Its basin, inhabited by about 20 million people, is approximately 250,000 square kilometers. Annual flows range from 23.5-51 cubic kilometers. About 90 percent of the Naryn/Syr Darya’s mean annual flow is regulated by a series of storage reservoirs called the Naryn-Syr Darya Cascade ^[1]. Agriculture represents about 89 percent of total water withdrawals in the Syr Darya Basin ^[2]

Syr Darya Basin Country Profiles and Key Information

Kazakhstan has a population of about 16.2 million people. Agriculture is the largest water user, accounting for 66 percent total water withdrawals^[3]. The country is dependent on inflows from transboundary rivers to meet most of its water needs. Long-term annual rainfall is only 250 mm per year, making Kazakh agriculture highly dependent on irrigation ^[3]. Kazakhstan’s GDP is US$ 196.4 billion ^[4]. The agricultural sector only accounts for about five percent of GDP but employs 28 percent of the economically active work force ^[5]. In poor, rural areas, agriculture can employ up to 60 percent of the work force ^[6].

The government of Kazakhstan has made achieving a high level of self-sufficiency in agricultural production a priority ^[7]. As such, structural reforms in the agricultural sector are necessary to meet these goals ^[3]. These reforms include increasing economic performance of the agricultural sector, meeting environmental requirements and introducing water-saving irrigation technologies. FAO ^[3] has recommended the restructuring of irrigated areas to shift production away from cotton and increase production of oilseeds and legumes, including perennial grasses. Kazakhstan is one of the top ten wheat producers in the world, and increasing productivity in rainfed areas, where most of the cereals are grown, is important ^{[3] [7]}.

Kyrgyzstan is a mountainous country with a population of about 5.4 million. With an annual growth rate of 1 percent, its population is projected to reach 6.2 million people by 2025. Kyrgyzstan is one of the poorest countries in the region, with a GDP of about US$ 6.4 billion ^[8]. Agriculture accounts for about 21 percent of GDP and employs 20 percent of the total economically active population ^[3]. Kyrgyzstan has a net food deficit (annual consumption is far more that is produced) and is seeking to expand food production in its less mountainous regions. Due to its mountainous landscape, potential for expansion of agricultural land area is limited. Increasing agricultural production will largely require intensification on existing land through an increase in crop productivity, farmer training, and the introduction of advanced agriculture and irrigation techniques ^[3]. Being a poor, mountainous country with few natural resources, Kyrgyzstan views hydropower development as essential for economic development.

Tajikistan is a mountainous country (mountainous landscape covers 93 percent of the country) with a population of about 7 million. Its population growth rate has slowed to 1.1 percent in recent years after being over 3 percent during the 1980s. Its GDP of US$ 7.6 billion makes it one of the poorest countries in Central Asia ^[9]. Its per capita GDP is lower than that of Kyrgyzstan. Despite its mountainous landscape, agriculture accounts for about 21 percent of Tajikistan’s GDP. 27 percent of the economically active population is employed in the agricultural sector. The government of Tajikistan is working with international organizations and experts to reform its water resources management sector and to transfer agricultural production to a market economy. If this is successful, it has the potential to change cropping patterns and motivate farmers to adopt water-saving irrigation methods ^[3].

Opportunities for further hydropower production in Tajikistan along the Syr Darya are limited, as only 1 percent of the total flow of the Syr Darya is generated in Tajikistan ^[3] and most of the areas suitable for dam building in Tajikistan have already been dammed.

Uzbekistan has a population of about 27.8 million with an annual growth rate of 1 percent. Its GDP is US$ 51.2 billion ^[10]. Agriculture accounts for 20 percent of GDP and employs 21 percent of the economically active population. Average annual rainfall is 264 mm, and like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan is highly reliant on transboundary rivers for its water resources. Cotton is the lead agricultural product in Uzbekistan, and its area and quantity produced are controlled by a government quota system, as are the purchase prices paid by the government to producers. Cotton-lint is the second leading export good (11 percent of export share) after energy resources (25 percent share of exports) ^[3].

Like the other countries of Central Asia, Uzbekistan’s irrigation network suffers from poor and degrading infrastructure and a water supply that is largely free of charge to farmers, who represent over 90% of Uzbekistan’s total water usage ^[11]. Cotton is a highly water intensive crop and is responsible for a significant portion of the water shortage in Uzbekistan. This water shortage is largely an artificial one, meaning the that the shortage is cause by poor irrigation management practices rather than a physical shortage from surface waters Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; refs with no content must have a name. At its current population growth rate, the population of Uzbekistan could reach 32-35 million people within the next 10-15 years ^[12]. Increasing efficiency in irrigated agriculture is essential for food security, supporting rural livelihoods, and for continuing economic growth and social development.

Issues and Stakeholders

Analysis, Synthesis, and Insight

No ASI articles have been added yet for this case

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2. ^ UNECE. 2011. "Second Assessment of Transboundary Rivers, Lakes and Groundwaters". New York and Geneva: United Nations Economic Commission for Europe.
3. ^ ^{3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9} FAO. 2013. "Irrigation in Central Asia in Figures: AQUASTAT Survey -2012". 39. Edited by Karen Frenken. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
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7. ^ ^{7.0 7.1} OECD. 2013. OECD Review of Agricultural Policies: Kazakhstan 2013. OECD Publishing.
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9. ^ Central Intelligence Agency 2013. "Tajikistan." World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ti.html.
10. ^ 2013d. "Uzbekistan." World Factbook. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/uz.html.
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12. ^ Akmadov, E. 2008. "Uzbekistan Experiences Serious Water Shortages." Central Asia Caucus Institute Analyst, May 28.