Difference between revisions of "Creative Options and Value Creation to Address Water Security in the Eastern Nile Basin"
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|REP Framework=== Overview == | |REP Framework=== Overview == | ||
This research is developed in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB), Africa, where several aspects raise concerns in the international community and local stakeholders in terms of water resources availability and scenarios of potential water crisis. Population increase and climate change are often flagged as major concerns, but unfortunately not the only ones that need to be addressed. | This research is developed in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB), Africa, where several aspects raise concerns in the international community and local stakeholders in terms of water resources availability and scenarios of potential water crisis. Population increase and climate change are often flagged as major concerns, but unfortunately not the only ones that need to be addressed. | ||
− | One way of understanding the water situation in the region is through the five indicators on water-quantity-related risks developed by the (Gassert, Reig, Luo, & Maddocks, 2013 | + | One way of understanding the water situation in the region is through the five indicators on water-quantity-related risks developed by the World Resources Institute (Gassert, Reig, Luo, & Maddocks, 2013). These five indicators range from 1 to 5 (low to high risk), and countries and regions rank differently depending on the indicator. For example, Egypt is at high risk before drought severity, whereas Ethiopia and Sudan are at high risk regarding seasonal variability and flood occurrence. ENB as a whole, however, is at low risk in terms of baseline water stress. |
− | “Water is clearly a major factor in socio-economic recovery and development in Africa. The continent appears to be blessed with substantial rainfall and water resources. Yet, it has severe and complex natural and man-made problems that constrain the exploitation and proper development of its water resources potential” (UN Water/Africa, N.D.) | + | Other relevant figures help depict the region in terms of socio-economic development and most of them hit the red zone of any colorful visualization. According to United Nations estimates, the total population in the Eastern Nile (EN) countries<sup>1</sup> increased by 50% between 2000 and 2015, overpassing 487 million. Yet, EN countries are not at the best in terms of welfare and socio-political stability. Most of them are low-income or lower middle-income countries according to the World Bank standards, show the lowest values for Human Development Index based on United Nations’ classification, and stability and social pressures pose these countries under the ‘alert’ flag according to the Fragile State Index by the Fund for Peace. |
+ | Climate change projections are not clear in the Nile Basin. They are consistent in terms of rising temperatures, but not in terms of rainfall. North Africa might become hotter and drier, with an increase in the evaporation component of the hydrologic budget (Conway, 2005; Islam & Susskind, 2015). Changes in hydrology equilibrium might not be good match for the increasing pressure posed in freshwater by current trends in economic development and land use patterns (Islam & Susskind, 2015), for instance the crop intensification practices (MWRI, 2014) and the land reclamation program in Egypt (FAO-AQUASTAT, 2015). | ||
+ | “Water is clearly a major factor in socio-economic recovery and development in Africa. The continent appears to be blessed with substantial rainfall and water resources. Yet, it has severe and complex natural and man-made problems that constrain the exploitation and proper development of its water resources potential” (UN Water/Africa, N.D.) | ||
− | Both climate and context realities pictured | + | Both climate and context realities pictured in the overview section are unlikely to step back in the short-term. However, the water crisis, whether current or incoming, needs to be addressed now, under a multidimensional approach. The list of stakeholders involved in the EN water issues is extensive, as water cuts through most elements of human life. However, it is possible to identify the major actors for each of the two main issues addressed through this research, namely water quantity and water for what. Both issues involve macro- and micro-level interventions that can be addressed at different pace. However, a holistic approach beyond mere jurisdictional boundaries should be pursuit. |
<sup>1</sup> Considering Sudan and South Sudan together | <sup>1</sup> Considering Sudan and South Sudan together |
Revision as of 15:15, 21 December 2015
Geolocation: | 12° 51' 46.1052", 30° 13' 3.4896" |
---|---|
Total Population | 156156,000,000 millionmillion |
Total Area | 20000002,000,000 km² 772,200 mi² km2 |
Climate Descriptors | Arid/desert (Köppen B-type), Monsoon |
Predominent Land Use Descriptors | agricultural- cropland and pasture, conservation lands, urban- high density |
Important Uses of Water | Agriculture or Irrigation, Domestic/Urban Supply, Hydropower Generation, Other Ecological Services |
Contents
Summary
Natural, Historic, Economic, Regional, and Political Framework
Overview
This research is developed in the Eastern Nile Basin (ENB), Africa, where several aspects raise concerns in the international community and local stakeholders in terms of water resources availability and scenarios of potential water crisis. Population increase and climate change are often flagged as major concerns, but unfortunately not the only ones that need to be addressed. One way of understanding the water situation in the region is through the five indicators on water-quantity-related risks developed by the World Resources Institute (Gassert, Reig, Luo, & Maddocks, 2013). These five indicators range from 1 to 5 (low to high risk), and countries and regions rank differently depending on the indicator. For example, Egypt is at high risk before drought severity, whereas Ethiopia and Sudan are at high risk regarding seasonal variability and flood occurrence. ENB as a whole, however, is at low risk in terms of baseline water stress. Other relevant figures help depict the region in terms of socio-economic development and most of them hit the red zone of any colorful visualization. According to United Nations estimates, the total population in the Eastern Nile (EN) countries1 increased by 50% between 2000 and 2015, overpassing 487 million. Yet, EN countries are not at the best in terms of welfare and socio-political stability. Most of them are low-income or lower middle-income countries according to the World Bank standards, show the lowest values for Human Development Index based on United Nations’ classification, and stability and social pressures pose these countries under the ‘alert’ flag according to the Fragile State Index by the Fund for Peace. Climate change projections are not clear in the Nile Basin. They are consistent in terms of rising temperatures, but not in terms of rainfall. North Africa might become hotter and drier, with an increase in the evaporation component of the hydrologic budget (Conway, 2005; Islam & Susskind, 2015). Changes in hydrology equilibrium might not be good match for the increasing pressure posed in freshwater by current trends in economic development and land use patterns (Islam & Susskind, 2015), for instance the crop intensification practices (MWRI, 2014) and the land reclamation program in Egypt (FAO-AQUASTAT, 2015). “Water is clearly a major factor in socio-economic recovery and development in Africa. The continent appears to be blessed with substantial rainfall and water resources. Yet, it has severe and complex natural and man-made problems that constrain the exploitation and proper development of its water resources potential” (UN Water/Africa, N.D.)
Both climate and context realities pictured in the overview section are unlikely to step back in the short-term. However, the water crisis, whether current or incoming, needs to be addressed now, under a multidimensional approach. The list of stakeholders involved in the EN water issues is extensive, as water cuts through most elements of human life. However, it is possible to identify the major actors for each of the two main issues addressed through this research, namely water quantity and water for what. Both issues involve macro- and micro-level interventions that can be addressed at different pace. However, a holistic approach beyond mere jurisdictional boundaries should be pursuit.
1 Considering Sudan and South Sudan together
Stakeholders Matrix
Stakeholders |
Issues |
||
1) Water quantity |
2) Water-Food-Energy nexus |
||
NSPD variables |
|||
Number |
Description |
water quantity, ecosystems, governance |
assets, governance, values and norms |
1 |
Egypt-National Government |
The country relies on the Main Nile River, coming from Sudan. It wants to keep water share at Aswan High Dam. Signed Declaration of Principles with main aim of not causing "significant damage" on riparians' water use |
The country needs water for energy production and irrigation. Most of water is used in agriculture sector to grow food for increasing population. |
2 |
Ethiopia-National Government |
It claims having the right to develop. This country is the source of the Blue Nile, main tributary for the Main Nile |
The country wants to harness its hydropower potential and so boost industrialization to escape poverty. It is building the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) with capacity for 6000 MW |
3 |
Sudan-National Government |
The country wants to make use of its water share. This would be possible if GERD is finished as Sudan would have sufficient and timely water stored upstream |
Water is needed to foster development of irrigation schemes mostly for food production |
4 |
South Sudan-National Government |
The new country demands participation in the water share agreed by former Sudan and Egypt. However, current civil war offsets this demand. Current priority is safe water access for displaced population |
It wants to develop agriculture for internal demand. It also has potential to become the "bread basket" of North Africa and Middle East. |
5 |
China-National Government |
*** |
China is interested in the region. It offers hydropower expertise and provide financial assistance. In returns, it has access to natural resources (oil and minerals). |
6 |
Irrigation districts/schemes |
Farmers in Egypt rely on water diverted at Aswan High Dam. Sudanese farmers rely on both, diversion and seasonal floods. Both rely on surface water, mostly from the Blue Nile River |
Water is used for growing food for both economic activity and subsistence. |
7 |
Big cities (Cairo, Khartoum) |
Meet demand in growing urban areas for domestic and industrial use |
Secure supply of water and energy for neighbors, institutions and businesses |
8 |
Rural communities |
Sufficient and steady water supply subsistence economies and decent livelihoods |
Sufficient and steady energy supply for subsistence economies and decent livelihoods |
9 |
Nile Basin Initiative |
NBI aims in evening the access and use of water resources for all riparian countries |
NBI promotes integrated management, sustainable development, and harmonious utilization of the water resources of the Basin, as well as their conservation and protection for the benefit of present and future generations. Its duties depend on financial donors, the World Bank being an important one. |
10 |
World Bank |
It won't provide funding for water-quantity-related projects in upper riparian countries unless lower ones are in fully agreement |
*** |
11 |
Humanitarian organizations (UN, NGOs) |
UN aims in communities to have sufficient water for decent subsistence. |
Water access and food security in civil-war-affected South Sudan is a major concern. |
12 |
Environmental organizations (RAMSAR Committee, etc.) |
Concerns about water-related developments in the Sudd, South Sudan |
The environment should be considered within the "nexus". |
13 |
Energy companies |
Hydropower companies are interest in preserve monthly and annual river flows |
All energy-related companies have interests in the new dynamics introduced in the region because of GERD and other hydropower facilities in agenda in Ethiopia, as well as armed conflicts in oil areas in Sudan and South Sudan |
14 |
Water Utilities |
Meet demand in growing urban areas for domestic and industrial use. Make a profit |
*** |
15 |
Import/export-linked countries |
|
Production of export goods requires energy and water. Import opportunities are related to socio-economic development of communities. |
Issues and Stakeholders
Water quantity. Nature or management issues?
NSPD: Water Quantity, Ecosystems, Governance
Stakeholder Types: Sovereign state/national/federal government, Local Government, Supranational union, Development/humanitarian interest, Environmental interest
It is claimed North Africa ran out of renewable freshwater decades ago, and the available water resources in the region are insufficient to meet food requirements (Qadir, Sharma, Bruggeman, Choukr-Allah, & Karajeh, 2007). Meanwhile, the total annual rainfall in the entire Nile Basin averages 2,000 billion cubic meters (BCM) (Awulachew, 2012; Islam & Susskind, 2015), and less than 5% makes it to Lake Nasser. There is a supply-demand gap in the region, likely as result of naturally uneven distribution of the water (hydrologic problem) combined with a mismanagement of the water resources (human problem).
The Nature/Social/Politics Domain (NSPD) variables associated to this issue are water quantity, ecosystems, governance. In turn, the corresponding stakeholders are local, state/province, and national governments within EN basin (Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan); multi-national institutions (UN, World Bank, Nile Basin Initiative, RAMSAR Committee, etc.) development/humanitarian NGOs (Water.org, Oxfam, etc.), irrigation districts/schemes, water utilities, energy companies.Water for what? The water-food-energy nexus.
NSPD: Water Quantity, Governance, Assets, Values and Norms
Stakeholder Types: Sovereign state/national/federal government, Local Government, Supranational union, Development/humanitarian interest, Environmental interest, Industry/Corporate Interest
The gap in water supply and demand is far from encapsulated. Quite the opposite, it is complexly intertwined with other social, political, and economical problems. More population implies more drinking water and more food as well; food whose production demands more water. Energy access is also a constraint in the region, particularly in the Sub-Saharan countries where 70% of people lack of access to reliable energy sources. Food and energy security turn out to be intimately related to water (water-food-energy nexus) when addressing the question of water either for irrigation and food production to fight poverty, or power generation to boost industrialization.
The NSPD variables associated to this issue are assets, governance, values and norms. In turn, the stakeholders linked to the issue are national governments within EN basin (Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Sudan, South Sudan); import/export-linked foreign countries (EU, USA, China); multi-national institutions (UN, World Bank, Nile Basin Initiative, RAMSAR Committee, World Trade Organization) development/humanitarian NGOs (Water.org, Oxfam), corporate interests (irrigation districts/schemes, energy companies, oil-and-gas companies)
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Key Questions
Integration across Sectors: How can consultation and cooperation among stakeholders and development partners be better facilitated/managed/fostered?
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