View source for ASI:Uncertainty in Lebanon's Water Situation

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|Reflection Text=Lebanon is a complicated and complex situation. Identifying and qualifying various uncertainties can be used as a tool to then address the issues. The scope of this field is broad, but two methods for quantifying the uncertainties of the Lebanese context were evaluated: Brugnach et al. and Susskind & Islam. 

=== Brugnach et al. ===
Brugnach et al. presents uncertainly through objects of knowledge outlined by van Asselt and Rotmans (2002) compartmentalizing natural, technical, and social systems. They then apply three types of uncertainty: unpredictability, incomplete knowledge, and multiple knowledge frameworks, to describe each of the systems. 

Table 7.

=== Susskind & Islam ===
The description and qualification of uncertainty by Susskind and Islam provide a tangle breakdown to describe the array of unknowns. They describe uncertainty of information, action, and perception. Using these definitions, the Lebanon context is evaluated.

''Uncertainty of Information''
Across the board, nearly every author or study involving Lebanon mentions something related to uncertainty of information. A lack of information is noted by Doummar et al., UNESCWA, ARD, Jurdi et al., Assef and Saadeh, ANERA, and others that pertain to just about every aspect of a water network, including: aquifers, precipitation, user rates, industry and public demands, but also population statistics, and economic growth. Even when there is information available the variation in quantifiable studies are so wide that uncertainty remains. 

''Uncertainty of Action''
The unpredictability of cause-effect relationships permeate throughout Lebanese politics and society. The inefficiency within the government is not unknown or impossible to improve conceptually; it is that the reciprocal effects of policy changes could create highly volatile conflict regionally and/or politically. What is a known is that there is a delicate balance of politics and social norms. At this point, the uncertainty of action actually paralyzes any action at all. From a water management view, changes are necessary in the strategy, infrastructure, and policy but without knowing the current demands and uses, determining the appropriate technologies for expectant outcomes remains aloof. 

''Uncertainty of Perception'' 
This uncertainty weighs very heavily in the Lebanese context. Because of the complicated, turbulent, and even violent past, the stakeholders have come to expect that there will be conflict and political discourse. The public has become very complacent about what to expect from the government noting that as long as there is not war, it is ok, but fail to acknowledge the potential or possibly necessary changes needed for the future. This perception may even hinder projects that would be greatly beneficial for all parties; however, the perception is that politics or something else would likely interfere. Relative to decades of war and strong tensions, the current period of stability is not acknowledged. The population does not talk about ‘if there is another war’ but ‘when there is another war’ which in turn greatly reduces the outlook on priorities when water projects span decades.

=== Addressing Uncertainty ===
Uncertainty will never be eliminated but still must be addressed to be better managed and mitigated. Lebanon is a complex situation that will only continue to have increased uncertainty unless positive steps are taken.
 
 *A better understanding of the countries hydrologic conditions and demands can be carried out through investment in nationwide studies and assessments with additional monitoring equipment. Also, the longevity of the Syrian refugees greatly magnifies nearly all the unknowns’ yet still demands some type of qualification. Adaptive management is becomes more crucial simply to address the dynamics of a constantly changing population.
 *The political standoff has crippled much of the effectiveness in the national government; however, not acting is also an action with reciprocal effects. Infrastructure will continue to decline, demands will increase, and climate change may have drastic effects. Some action must be taken and followed up. Establishing conditions that are conducive for government cooperation is imperative for progress to happen.
 *A great deal of uncertainty would be eliminated if the social perception were addressed. Keeping the status quo of the social/political balance has kept communities and parties at opposite ends of the social spectrum, afraid of upsetting the perceived balance. Taking on a mutual gains through a water diplomacy approach would reveal underlying issues or values.

== Opportunity for Water Diplomacy ==
 Addressing uncertainty is one aspect of the water diplomacy framework, but pursuing additional water diplomacy frame work criterion such as: Collaborative Adaptive Management, Joint Fact Finding, Stakeholder Involvement, and Mutual Gains could greatly increase the progress toward national progress. These are not new concepts but have only recently been coupled and applied to water issues. Several of these concepts are described below relative to the Lebanese context. 

''Joint Fact Finding''
There is a large void of information and general hydrologic data in Lebanon. Even if data exists, the variance among reported numbers creates uncertainty in the process and data itself. Decades of civil war greatly hindered data collection but also augmented distrust on the political and social fronts. To combat these issues, a joint fact finding (JFF) assessment could begin to gain much needed countrywide data, but also provide a starting point for future working relationships. One possible scenario that could prove successful would be to have a non-partisan third party (from outside Lebanon) mandate data collection that utilizes high technology and established global data collection methods. Because the internal politics are so congested at a national and local level, having an outside expert provides a non-partisan authority without political agendas. Hopefully, this would be seen as someone trying to get the best results for Lebanon. This person or agency would also be able to use data collection to gain credibility among the stakeholders. If the data collection were based on what was needed and not set by stakeholders, the internal political debates would be minimized, although the outside party would listen, acknowledge, and adapt strategies if necessary. While acknowledging that data collection can be a source of contention among stakeholders at times, this approach is more of establishing a strong baseline across the country and not debating which data set to use or prioritize. Thus, a non-partisan third party helping to ‘start fresh’ could establish a platform for agreement among the stakeholders.

''Stakeholder Involvement''
Involving as many relevant stakeholders as possible would lend credibility to the process and include local farm coalitions, township and district representatives, tourism sector, hydrologists, climate experts, non-governmental organizations, Palestinian representatives, as well as national government representatives. Involving as many stakeholders as possible will provide much needed momentum and accountability to the process. Previously, there has been a lack of accountability between the national and local governments, which has resulted in a shift of authority from the national government to local and regional areas. Examples include Hezbollah controlled areas of Baalbek in the Bekaa Valley and strong sectarian divisions in Tripoli where national forces have nearly no influence. However, acknowledging the principles for an agreement and moving forward is hopefully important enough to bring all the stakeholders to the table, cultivating opportunities for progress. 

''Mutual Gains & Collaborative Adaptive Management''
With respect to mutual gains within a collaborative adaptive management approach, the attitude in Lebanon would likely be considered in contrast to the idea of collaboration. This stems from years of war and civil unrest that dictates inward focused gains. War eliminates long-term social strategies as survival overrules all other priorities. This has precipitated through difficulty in politics because long-term objectives are not prioritized against the immediate needs of security and peace. Mutual gains would be an uphill fight, but the approach could prove most beneficial. This could be seen with an efficient use of strong principles that presents the issues and strategies to overcome them.  Also adding credibility from the stakeholders with a sense of ownership would be a welcomed relief from years of conflict. The notion of mutual gains, where there are no ‘winners and losers’ is important concept that is difficult to accept in a war torn country, yet has enormous potential for change. This is especially true when dealing with many minority groups. Establishing both short term and long term goals within a principled strategy would be necessary to show that mutual gains are possible.  

Jurdi et al. supports the need for Lebanon to adopt a collaborative adaptive management strategy while also addressing that institutional, legal, and financial constraints hamper Lebanon’s water management. These constraints provide an even stronger call for collaborative adaptive management. Unfortunately, so far, there has been little consensus building among the different ethnic groups and 30 years of civil war have left little ground to start building a foundation of trust. One way to support collective adaptive management would be to start with very small but tangible projects that all parties can get behind. Also, joint fact finding and mutual gains are also elements that support collaborative adaptive management. This acknowledges that agreeing to start a process would be a strong step toward a common long term goal. Adaptive management should address the changing natural and political situations but maintain fairness to all parties. A difficult task in itself, but there remains potential if many stakeholders have identified underlying values and creativity among parties is encouraged. 

''Regional Applications''
Haddadin et al. acknowledges many water challenges exist throughout the Middle East that are also exhibited in the Lebanese context. Many of these challenges originate from a general scarcity of water across the region but are augmented by increasing population demand and the strengthening of economies. While water has been a point of contention in the past, it could be used as a springboard for agreement, in Lebanon and also neighboring countries. Aligning of strategies and priorities among the nations could greatly benefit the region and sow some seeds of unity. 


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