Uncertainty in Lebanon's Water Situation

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Article last edited 17 Jan 2014 by Tmyates
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Lebanon is a complicated and complex situation. Identifying and qualifying various uncertainties can be used as a tool to then address the issues. The scope of this field is broad, but two methods for quantifying the uncertainties of the Lebanese context were evaluated: Brugnach et al. and Susskind & Islam.

Brugnach et al. Brugnach et al. presents uncertainly through objects of knowledge outlined by van Asselt and Rotmans (2002) compartmentalizing natural, technical, and social systems. They then apply three types of uncertainty: unpredictability, incomplete knowledge, and multiple knowledge frameworks, to describe each of the systems.

Table 7.

Susskind & Islam The description and qualification of uncertainty by Susskind and Islam provide a tangle breakdown to describe the array of unknowns. They describe uncertainty of information, action, and perception. Using these definitions, the Lebanon context is evaluated.

Uncertainty of Information Across the board, nearly every author or study involving Lebanon mentions something related to uncertainty of information. A lack of information is noted by Doummar et al., UNESCWA, ARD, Jurdi et al., Assef and Saadeh, ANERA, and others that pertain to just about every aspect of a water network, including: aquifers, precipitation, user rates, industry and public demands, but also population statistics, and economic growth. Even when there is information available the variation in quantifiable studies are so wide that uncertainty remains.

Uncertainty of Action The unpredictability of cause-effect relationships permeate throughout Lebanese politics and society. The inefficiency within the government is not unknown or impossible to improve conceptually; it is that the reciprocal effects of policy changes could create highly volatile conflict regionally and/or politically. What is a known is that there is a delicate balance of politics and social norms. At this point, the uncertainty of action actually paralyzes any action at all. From a water management view, changes are necessary in the strategy, infrastructure, and policy but without knowing the current demands and uses, determining the appropriate technologies for expectant outcomes remains aloof.

Uncertainty of Perception This uncertainty weighs very heavily in the Lebanese context. Because of the complicated, turbulent, and even violent past, the stakeholders have come to expect that there will be conflict and political discourse. The public has become very complacent about what to expect from the government noting that as long as there is not war, it is ok, but fail to acknowledge the potential or possibly necessary changes needed for the future. This perception may even hinder projects that would be greatly beneficial for all parties; however, the perception is that politics or something else would likely interfere. Relative to decades of war and strong tensions, the current period of stability is not acknowledged. The population does not talk about ‘if there is another war’ but ‘when there is another war’ which in turn greatly reduces the outlook on priorities when water projects span decades.

Addressing Uncertainty Uncertainty will never be eliminated but still must be addressed to be better managed and mitigated. Lebanon is a complex situation that will only continue to have increased uncertainty unless positive steps are taken.

 •A better understanding of the countries hydrologic conditions and demands can be carried out through investment in nationwide studies and assessments with additional monitoring equipment. Also, the longevity of the Syrian refugees greatly magnifies nearly all the unknowns’ yet still demands some type of qualification. Adaptive management is becomes more crucial simply to address the dynamics of a constantly changing population.
 •The political standoff has crippled much of the effectiveness in the national government; however, not acting is also an action with reciprocal effects. Infrastructure will continue to decline, demands will increase, and climate change may have drastic effects. Some action must be taken and followed up. Establishing conditions that are conducive for government cooperation is imperative for progress to happen.
 •A great deal of uncertainty would be eliminated if the social perception were addressed. Keeping the status quo of the social/political balance has kept communities and parties at opposite ends of the social spectrum, afraid of upsetting the perceived balance. Taking on a mutual gains through a water diplomacy approach would reveal underlying issues or values.